which political party is likely to win the Senate election in that state – and why.

Seven states will have US Senate elections in 2018 that, as of early
August 2018, are considered toss-ups by one or both of two of America’s
most highly regarded political analysts – Larry Sabato and Charlie Cook.
Those states are Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota and West Virginia. Sabato is the founder and director of the Center for Politics (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site. at the University of Virginia. His website, the Crystal Ball, offers analyses and predictions for elections across the country. Charlie Cook is the editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report,
and a political analyst for NBC News. The Cook Political Report
describes itself as “an independent, non-partisan newsletter that
analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US
Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.”

I’m asking you to pick any one of the seven states above and tell me which political party is likely to win the Senate election in that state – and why.

I’m most interested in your reasons, whatever the answer. These are
actually the heart of the paper. The 2018 political climate in each
state is already well-established. You should be able to get some sense
from each state’s news media on the web and perhaps other sources of how
the state is likely to vote in its November Senate election. Of course,
I will be looking at the winners of these November 6 elections, but
what I’m mainly interested in is a projection supported by plausible
reasons.

There will be more to say about this paper beginning in early
September, once our course is underway. In the meantime, you can find
the current Sabato and Cook Senate projections at:

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-… (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-… (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.